2011年5月4日 星期三

Semiconductor Revenues Hang Tough


Semiconductor Revenues Hang Tough
So far, semiconductor industry revenue has been surprisingly strong in spite of shaky macroeconomic fundamentals such as persistently high unemployment rates, high fuel costs, and sluggish consumer spending, and in spite of natural disasters such as the Japanese earthquake in mid-March. It is clear that the pervasiveness of electronics through all sectors of the economy is creating a feedback loop that is amplifying demand for semiconductor components that are smaller, faster, and more efficient than ever before.Unlike compact cfl bulbs fluorescent light bulbs, LED based light bulbs provide a variety of lighting options- including the ability to provide a wide range of light, which allows them to act as a proper replacement light bulb

Although I am cautious in my expectations for growth this year, I am still bullish on the semiconductor industry, and in light of earnings results and forecasts from a number of semiconductor industry heavy hitters, I still believe the semiconductor industry in on track to meet my 10 percent revenue growth expectations for 2011.

The most recent data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) was rather encouraging as it demonstrated that the sequential revenue growth rate during the March quarter was higher than the seasonal trend. In fact, March quarter semiconductor revenue grew by 0.4 percent, which was higher than the seasonal rate that calls for a decline of 4 percent during the period; this sequential growth rate was, however, a bit lower than my forecast of 1 percent growth.

Nonetheless, the three-month moving average (3MMA) global semiconductor revenue in March increased approximately 2.5 percent to $25.3 billion from the $24.7 billion achieved in February, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.57 percent.

Looking back at the March quarter financial results of one of the heavy hitters in the semiconductor industry, I also saw some encouraging data. Intel's (INTC) financial results during the March quarter were strong despite growing fears of a significant consumer pull back. Intel continued to deliver financial results and forecasts that not only surprised many analysts on the Street but also defied many third party research predictions.

Demand from emerging markets and from enterprise businesses drove Intel's March quarter revenue to $12.8 billion, higher than the Street's estimate of $11.6 billion and higher that management's own guided range of $11.3 billion to $12.1 billion. Even more encouraging, however, was that management forecasted revenue growth of over 20 percent during 2011, as it sees strong consumer PC growth driven by improving macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets.

Such is the case that Intel basically reiterated its double-digit PC unit growth rate, which contradicted the decreasing trend in estimates currently forecasted by many third party market followers.Compact fluorescent light bulbs convert a led tube considerably higher percentage of their energy into light, which is why they are significantly more energy efficient than traditional filament bulbs. It is clear that Intel is seeing growth coming from all directions, particularly from tablets and handhelds. The combination of management's efforts to stay on the forefront of technology along with the need to meet an expanding market's demand has led Intel to increased its capital spending plans during 2011 to $10.2 billion plus or minus $400 million,However, the marketing muscle of Philips led light lighting could give Philips LED business an advantage. up from the $9 billion projected back in January -- approximately double the $5.The 250U actually had a slightly higher マジコンds average upload speed—.96Mbps up as compared to the U600's .94Mbps2 billion spent in 2010. In essence, the combination of an improving global economy, better products, and an expanding market will lead to strong growth in 2011 for Intel.

Even if PC sales were to land below Intel's projections, I still see semiconductor revenue growth fueled by a wider range of other products that go beyond computers, such as smart phones, tablets, and industrial applications. Other contributing factors should come from automotive electronics, increasing connectivity in the home, LED lighting,Compact fluorescent light bulbs convert a led tube considerably higher percentage of their energy into light, which is why they are significantly more energy efficient than traditional filament bulbs. upgrades in communication infrastructure driven by 4G networks, and of course expansion in cloud computing.

As such, I continue to see semiconductor revenue growth of 10 percent for this full year, with June quarter increasing 4 percent, a bit stronger than seasonal growth.

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